Red Sox vs. Yankees might not be what it once was in terms of the rivalry, but it's still the best one we have in the American League and remains among the best in MLB. It seems as if all of their playoff series have been memorable, so it should be intense when they open the AL Wild-Card Round against each other tonight at Yankee Stadium. The big news for New York fans is that three-time MVP Aaron Judge is not on the New York roster for the Wild-Card Round. Bet $5+ on any of today's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Tuesday's series opener is set for an 8 p.m. ET first pitch on NBC – did you doubt this would be the prime-time matchup of the four playoff openers (and all the meetings are scheduled for 8 ET)? The weather might be slightly pitcher-friendly, with the temperature expected to be around 69 degrees at first pitch and winds at a light 3 mph. At -145, New York is taking only 23% of handle and 34% of bets. On the total of 6.5, 70% of money and 55% of tickets are on the Under.
This will mark the seventh playoff series between the AL East rivals, tied for the second-most between any two teams. Yankees-Dodgers is No. 1 with 12, while Yankees-Guardians and Yankees-Giants also have been played seven times. These teams also met in the 2025 Wild-Card Series at Yankee Stadium, and New York won in three. Boston had won the previous three postseason series, including a one-game Wild-Card in 2021.
New York won this regular-season series 7-6, going 4-2 at Yankee Stadium. On the series line, the Yanks are -170 and the Red Sox +140. A New York sweep is the +185 favorite. Thus, on the Over/Under 2.5 total games the Under is a slight -115 leader.
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Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB same-game parlay
- New York money line
- Race to 6 runs: Neither
FanDuel SGP price: +134 (subject to change)
Boston is one of nine teams in the past 30 seasons to make the playoffs despite firing their manager during the regular season; this year's Philadelphia Phillies also are one. Interim manager Chad Tracy, who took over on April 26 with the team at 10-17, was recently given the full-time title and extended. The Red Sox were still a season-worst 14 games under .500 on June 25 but rescued their year starting with a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway from June 25-28.
Boston was a stellar 46-35 away this year, the fourth-best record in the majors. The team is third in MLB in runs allowed per game (3.77) and leads in relievers' ERA at 3.00. Closer Aroldis Chapman, a former Yankee, was nearly unhittable in saving 35 games and blowing only two with a 1.92 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. Chapman's 11 career playoff saves are tied for sixth-most in league history.
In an interesting decision, the Red Sox are going with rookie lefty Payton Tolle over Sonny Gray, who comes off his best season, leading the AL in wins, and will get some Cy Young votes. He also has a history of not pitching well in New York City (as a member of the Yankees back in the day, anyway).
Tolle won't win AL Rookie of the Year but will finish high in the voting after going 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 26 starts. He was better away (2.50 ERA) and great against the Yankees in two starts at 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.93 opponents' batting average in 13.0 innings. Do note both those were at Fenway Park, and this would mark Tolle's Yankee Stadium debut. That can rattle even the best pitchers (ask Gray).
The Oklahoma native is 23 years and 332 days old today, making him the third-youngest pitcher to start the first game of a Red Sox playoff series behind Smoky Joe Wood in Game 1 of the 1912 World Series and some guy known as Babe Ruth in the 1918 Fall Classic. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Tolle at 5.8 innings, 6.6 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. Jazz Chisholm is the only Yankee to homer off him.
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New York was 34-20 vs. lefties this season and 46-34 at home overall, not playing the full 81 games because Sunday's meaningless matchup vs. Baltimore was canceled due to weather. It's the team's ninth playoff appearance in the past 10 seasons but still no World Series title since 2009. I wonder if Aaron Boone is back next year if the Yanks don't get to at least the ALCS.
Boone also might get a pass because of the Judge injury situation. He took live BP on Monday but clearly didn't look right and had zero chance of being able to play the field. Hopefully we see Judge in the ALDS if the Yanks get there, as baseball is better with him. The Yankees averaged 5.12 runs this season with a .764 team OPS and a plus-103 run margin with Judge in the lineup in 2026 and put up 4.22 runs a .690 OPS and plus-35 margin without.
While the Yanks considered going with Max Fried as the Game 1 starter, it will be sure-fire AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA) on normal rest. The thinking of maybe moving Schlittler to Game 2 was to give him an extra day after a career-high in innings, by far.
Schlittler broke onto the national scene in Game 3 of the 2025 Wild-Card Series against Boston when he had one of the great postseason starts in franchise history with eight shutout innings, 12 strikeouts and no walks in the victory. He became only the seventh starting pitcher with at least 12 strikeouts and zero earned runs allowed in his playoff debut.
And the Boston-area native carried that over to 2026, as he was 2-1 with a 0.74 ERA and .174 opponents' batting average in four starts against the Red Sox. Frankly, no Boston batters have good career splits off him, and only Caleb Durbin has gone yard. The model forecasts Schlittler at 5.7 innings, 6.8 strikeouts, 4.2 hits allowed and 1.5 earned runs.
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Maybe Tolle vs. Schlittler is the starting pitching matchup of the future in the AL East race, but that Tolle hasn't yet pitched in the Bronx is a fairly big deal to me. Not to mention in his playoff debut and also the Boston manager's postseason debut. The model has Yankees by a score of 4.0-3.7. I am enjoying these neither team to six runs props at FanDuel, as I'd be stunned if we saw either with that many here. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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