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President Trump is getting ready to address the nation on Thursday evening, but the speech comes as his political troubles are piling up.
The war on Iran, unpopular since its inception, has been restarted at Trump’s behest. A new Economist/YouGov poll shows 65 percent of Americans wanting an immediate deal to end the conflict, and 57 percent saying going to war in the first place was a mistake.
At home, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers have recently killed two people in a six-day span, reigniting impassioned debates over the agency’s behavior and Trump’s immigration policies.
In the courts, a judge earlier this week slammed Trump and his allies, in essence accusing them of self-dealing in a ruling over his legal case against the IRS and Treasury Department.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche faced tough questioning on the matter from senators on Wednesday as he sought confirmation to a permanent role.
Trump’s poll ratings remain at a low ebb, too. The president earlier this week proclaimed on social media that he had a “59% Approval Rating.” It’s unclear what his post was based on, since the truth is almost exactly the opposite.
In the polling average maintained by data expert Nate Silver, 57 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance while only 40 percent approve.
There’s one more complication as well. On Tuesday, Trump suggested that his speech would address claims of fraud in the 2020 election.
“It’s really, really big news,” he promised Tuesday. “It doesn’t get bigger, because without free and fair elections, you don’t have a country.”
His record on this subject is awash in falsehoods, however — something that has led opponents to argue TV networks should not carry his speech, if this is to be its main topic.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told reporter Pablo Manríquez on Tuesday: “I don’t think that we should be contributing to any platforming of lies about our election. … I think that we have an ethical obligation to not air things that undermine our elections, that are not rooted in evidence and fact.”
Some Trump allies are suggesting speculation the president will focus solely on the 2020 election is unwarranted, however.
Trump himself told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that the address would focus on “a couple of other things” in addition to elections. The question of Iran will hang over the president’s remarks, whether he addresses the topic with any depth or not.
The administration formally told Congress in recent days hostilities have resumed with Iran, in effect giving the president another 60 days on the clock before he would have to seek explicit congressional approval for the use of force against the Islamic Republic.
Trump has cast the resumption of hostilities as a response to Iranian mendacity.
“They want to make a deal, but every time they make a deal, they break it,” the president told Trey Yingst of Fox News in a Tuesday interview.
It remains doubtful whether new U.S. military actions can force the Iranians to accept more concessions than they did under the memorandum of understanding (MOU) that the combatants agreed upon last month.
Trump faced some criticism from his right flank over the MOU, with hawkish voices complaining that it was too generous to Tehran.
All that being said, there are some potential upsides to Trump in delivering the speech.
A primetime address by its very nature underlines the advantages he enjoys in terms of the bully pulpit. He could, at least in theory, frame the resumption of hostilities in Iran in a more compelling way than he has so far. GOP colleagues would clearly be grateful if he began making the case for the party in the midterms.
“Voters are saying overwhelmingly that what they care about is what they spend every day of their lives,” said GOP strategist Doug Heye, a former communications director with the Republican National Committee. “That is priority No. 1, 2 and 3 for them.”
Against that, contemporary political culture has shifted since the time when big presidential speeches were viewed as rare opportunities to communicate in an unmediated way with the electorate.
Trump communicates in unfiltered fashion almost every day through his social media posts and his frequent impromptu remarks during White House events. Whatever the upsides and downsides of that approach, the overall effect means it is harder for a presidential speech to have the impact it once did.
“It’s almost like a rerun even though the content will be different,” said Tobe Berkovitz, a Boston University professor emeritus who specializes in political communications. “Trump spends so much time talking to the media and talking to the public. The difference between him popping out on Air Force One to talk to reporters or popping out to deliver a major address is irrelevant to most people. It’s just Trump speaking.”
There is an added complication, too. Trump’s sometimes meandering or repetitive communication style can backfire easily. A primetime address about Iran at the start of April received mixed reviews at best, with detractors contending the president said little that was new.
There is also the ever-present possibility he could ignite new controversies. One obvious potential subject is immigration.
On Wednesday, Trump appeared to countermand an order for ICE to pause most traffic stops, following the killings of Joan Sebastian Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine, on Monday and of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston the previous Tuesday, July 7. Both men were killed in ICE traffic stops.
Trump insisted in his social media post that, while ICE needed to be “judicious, fair and smart,” the administration “CANNOT give up one of I.C.E.’s most important and effective Crime Fighting tools, THE TRAFFIC STOP!”
Immigration is one of the more complicated issues for Trump, given that he has reduced the flow of unauthorized migrants at the southwestern border to a trickle while at the same time ICE actions have sparked major backlash.
For the moment, the only sure thing about Thursday’s speech seems to be that Trump will address the 2020 election in some shape or form.
It is much more doubtful whether he will change anyone’s mind.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
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