Every week, the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw.
College football does an incredible job of reminding you that you don't know anything on a weekly basis, but I feel safe saying the SEC has re-established itself as the strongest of the Power Four conferences this season. That doesn't mean it's going to win the national title, but it's going to have more teams in the College Football Playoff field than any other league.
Right now, the four most likely look to be No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia, No. 8 Ole Miss and No. 10 Alabama. All four of them improved to 3-0 on the season, though it was Ole Miss picking up the most impressive win of the weekend, taking down their ex, Lane Kiffin, 32-24. I'll have more on that later, though.
What I want to talk about right now is the Florida Gators. Jon Sumrall's team went on the road to Auburn and won 44-39. It was their first real test of the season after easy wins over Florida Atlantic and Campbell, and the Gators passed. Aaron Philo looked good, as did Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson (a combined 9 catches for 160 yards). The defense had 7 sacks but still gave up 39 points, so it wasn't an incredible performance on that side of the ball.
The superstar of this team, though, appears to be running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh finished with 162 yards on the ground with three touchdowns. That included touchdown runs of 53 and 33 yards. He might just be the best running back in the country, and could play his way into the Heisman conversation as the season progresses.
That's assuming Florida continues to play this well. And it might. Sumrall doesn't have many losses on his resume as a head coach. He's been in charge of two schools for four seasons before taking the Florida job, and he won three conference titles and reached the conference title game in the fourth season. I don't think Florida will play for an SEC title this year. The schedule gets far more difficult from this point on. Depending on how the new AP poll looks, there may be three top-5 opponents left to play.
So I'm not ready to proclaim that Florida is a playoff team yet. What I am ready to proclaim, however, is that I don't believe there's much that separates them from the LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Missouri tier, either. In fact, of those teams I just named, LSU is the only one I don't think Florida is already better than. And Florida might be better than LSU, too!
The SEC is going to be a wild race over the final three quarters of the regular season.
Hotty Toddy
I was wrong about Ole Miss. I was certain that, given everything the Rebels lost from last season and a likely downgrade on the sidelines, this team would regress in 2026. I loved Trinidad Chambliss, but damn it, I just didn't see a world in which he'd be able to keep putting the team on his back and carrying them out of a burning building every week.
Turns out he just might.
Ole Miss got revenge on Lane Kiffin Saturday. The Rebels welcomed Kiffin back to Oxford with some boos and lovely chants (but no projectiles) and sent him back to Baton Rouge with his first loss as LSU's head coach.
Chambliss, as is almost always the case, led the way. He threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for a third -- which proved to be the game-winner. He thoroughly outplayed LSU's Sam Leavitt and managed to overcome a rough spell of his own in the second half to grab the game late.
I was also impressed by Pete Golding. My fear whenever a defensive coordinator takes the helm for the first time is that they will be too conservative. I've simply seen too many former defensive coordinators believe that their defense can get them out of tight spots, and get too conservative. That's not Golding. He understands the strength of his team -- though the Ole Miss defense played well against LSU, too -- and plays to it.
He also makes some aggressive decisions. When Chambliss scored on a 14-yard touchdown run to put the Rebels up 30-24 with 6:14 left, Golding left his offense on the field to go for two. Now, there are two theories as to why he made this choice. One was that he was just trying to draw LSU offsides -- which Ole Miss did, twice -- or cause them to burn their final timeout. My theory is something else.
I believed that Golding, who knows Lane Kiffin extremely well, knew that if he kicked the extra point, Lane would go for two if LSU scored a touchdown. So Golding decided that he wouldn't leave Lane any other choice. He'd go for two and get it, which the Rebels did.
Regardless of the motivation, it was a wise coaching decision, and I'm wondering if Ole Miss ended up in a great spot by practically being forced to hire Golding after Lane held them hostage for so long with the will-he-or-won't-he dance.
And who knows? Maybe it's an upgrade. I mean, Golding's already won more big games with Ole Miss in six games than Kiffin won in six years.
Ole Miss has 2 wins over the last 60 years in AP top-10 matchups... Pete Golding has both.
— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) September 20, 2026
Power Four standings
ConferenceNonconference record vs. P4 & Notre DameSEC
10-2
Big 12
5-7
ACC
6-9
Big Ten
4-9
I'm not totally sold on Louisville
No. 23 Louisville beat No. 16 SMU 41-31 in what was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. It was a huge win for the Cardinals because SMU is one of the teams they're expected to be directly competing against in the ACC for a conference title shot, and because it was their last genuine marquee matchup.
A loss would have been devastating to both their ACC title hopes, as well as their CFP at-large chances. But they avoided it, picking up a nice resume win, and what could be a massive tie-breaker for them later this season.
Lincoln Keinholz was impressive again, as were Keyjuan Broan and Isaac Brown. The addition of Keinholz's legs at the QB position has made Louisville's rushing attack, already potent under Jeff Brohm, even more dangerous. These are all wonderful things for the Cardinals.
But I'm not totally buying in yet.
The season-opening loss to Ole Miss looks even better after what the Rebels did to LSU, but the final score of the SMU win doesn't tell the whole story. Louisville still gave up 31 points and was outgained by the Mustangs. If not for three SMU turnovers, this game could've gone a very different direction. SMU's Kendrick Raphael rushed for 197 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 8.2 yards per carry. You've played two Power Four teams this season and allowed 72 points in those two games.
Yes, the schedule gets far easier from here out. There isn't a team that's currently ranked or likely to be ranked on Sunday remaining on it. But Jeff Brohm's "Big Game Brohm" nickname is a bit of a double-edged sword. His teams always show up in big games, but they sometimes forget about the little ones. In 2024, the Cardinals lost to Stanford as 21-point favorites. Last season, they lost to Cal as an 18.5-point favorite.
Until the defense starts performing better, I'm not assuming anything about this Cardinals team, no matter how "easy" the schedule looks.
Put up your Dukes
When I ranked my top Group of Six candidates in last week's Vibe Check, I had James Madison fifth. It may have been too low. The Dukes have a new coaching staff and a lot of new players, but they've got the same old wins.
On Saturday, they went on the road and beat San Diego State 26-13. Now, that may not be the kind of win that moves the needle considerably, but flying all the way across the country and winning comfortably is never something that should be taken lightly. If you don't believe me, go watch the highlights of USC scraping by against Rutgers this week.
I'm skeptical that the CFP will turn to the Sun Belt champion again unless the other G6 leagues eat each other alive, but Billy Napier, Camden Coleman, and company look like a legit threat to go undefeated in the league this year. I'm not ready to move them ahead of Boise State (which struggled with South Dakota) or North Dakota State (which did not struggle with Sacramento State), but those are the only two that should be ahead of them in the G6 right now.
Week 4 vibe shifters
A look ahead to the five games on this week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race
- Oregon at USC
- Ole Miss at Florida
- Texas at Tennessee
- Oklahoma at Georgia
- Iowa at Michigan
- Boise State at Western Michigan
This week's CFP projection
- Notre Dame
- Georgia
- Miami
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas
- Ole Miss
- Alabama
- BYU
- Oregon
- Florida
- Boise State
